The Demographic challenge

BiH is ageing and shrinking demographically. Although BiH’s birthrates are similar to those of the EU, the main driver of its population decline is a sustained and increasing rate of emigration. Thus far mitigation measures have been successful in limiting COVID-19 related mortality, but the longer-term impact of the pandemic on society and the economy remain to be seen.

While post-conflict BiH experienced educational and labor migration, the pattern changed in 2014, when emigration increased and has more recently shifted from single young adults to families leaving their jobs and taking their children with them to seek their future in other countries. In 2020, some labor migrants returned to BiH as host country economies shed labor due to COVID-19 closures, while those who had obtained host country citizenship, permanent residence or the expectation of returning to work remained in place. The return of significant numbers of labor migrants has both reduced the flow of remittances and increased pressure on an already significantly impacted labor market. Coordinated interventions in the social and economic sectors are urgently needed to address these pressures.